No deal, no brakes: what's left of the Iran ceasefire - critical summary review

Islamabad is not exactly the center of the world. Pakistan's capital is a planned city, a bit sleepy, with boulevards that are too wide. But this weekend, it was there — in that unlikely setting — that the fate of a good chunk of the global economy hung by a thread for twenty-one straight hours.

On one side, US Vice President JD Vance, alongside envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner. On the other, Iranian Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf and Foreign Minister Araghchi, with over seventy diplomats, military officials, and economists. In between, Pakistan, which managed to bring both sides to the same table for the first time since 2015 — and at the highest level since the 1979 Islamic Revolution.

The fact that these talks even happened is huge on its own. These are two countries that have been in open war since February 28, when the United States and Israel struck Iran. Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei was killed on the first day. Iran responded with missiles aimed at Israel and US bases, and shut down the Strait of Hormuz — the bottleneck through which one-fifth of the world's oil flows. Since then, oil prices have surged over fifty percent. US gas prices jumped more than a dollar per gallon. Countries across Asia are rationing fuel. Fertilizer plants in the Gulf have shut down, which could disrupt corn planting in the US and push up meat prices worldwide. According to the International Energy Agency, this is the largest oil supply disruption in history.

And it was in this context that the Islamabad talks collapsed.

Negotiations made progress on several fronts: sanctions, war reparations, humanitarian issues. But there were two knots no one could untie. The first: nuclear weapons. Washington demanded a complete end to all uranium enrichment, the dismantling of key facilities, and the removal of enriched material. This went beyond the 2015 deal — the same deal Trump himself walked away from in 2018. Iran insists that enriching uranium is a sovereign right and that its program is civilian. Giving that up would mean capitulation — and the regime simply cannot look like it capitulated.

The second knot: the Strait of Hormuz. Iran wants to keep control of the passage and charge tolls on ships — fees that have already reached two million dollars per vessel, some paid in Chinese yuan. For Washington, freedom of navigation there is non-negotiable.

When Vance left Islamabad on Sunday morning, he said Iran had chosen not to accept American terms and that the US had presented its final offer. Trump, on social media, was blunter: everything was agreed upon except the nuclear issue — the only point that actually mattered.

On the Iranian side, Ghalibaf said the Americans failed to earn his delegation's trust. Araghchi said Iran encountered maximalism and shifting goalposts. The truth is that both sides left Islamabad claiming victory in the war. And that is precisely the root of the problem: when neither side believes it lost, neither has an incentive to give in.

Trump's response came within hours. He announced the US Navy would block all ships trying to enter or leave Iranian ports. The blockade took effect Monday at ten in the morning. Brent crude jumped seven percent, hitting a hundred and two dollars a barrel. JPMorgan analysts warned that the last shipments made before the war would reach their destinations around April 20 — after that, there would be no more oil in transit to cushion the blow.

Iran vowed a severe response to any warship approaching the Strait. It also threatened to block the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, cutting off access to the Suez Canal. All of this while the ceasefire — which technically runs until April 22 — remains nominally in place. Israel hasn't stopped bombing Lebanon. Over two thousand Lebanese civilians have been killed since March. The Red Cross had an ambulance directly hit by an Israeli drone this weekend.

Trump himself said Lebanon is not included in the ceasefire. For Iran, that's a dealbreaker. In short: we have a ceasefire nobody fully respects, a naval blockade that could be construed as an act of war, and an escalation fueled by each side's conviction that it's winning.

If the Strait of Hormuz was the stage for hard geopolitics this weekend, the other front played out between the president and the Pope. Leo XIV, born in Chicago, the first American to sit on the throne of Saint Peter, has been criticizing the war with growing intensity. During Saturday's vigil at St. Peter's Basilica — while Islamabad was still negotiating — he said: "Enough with the idolatry of self and money. Enough with the display of force. Enough with war." The week before, he had called Trump's threat to destroy an entire civilization "truly unacceptable."

Trump fired back Sunday night on Truth Social. He called the Pope "weak on crime" and "terrible for foreign policy." He said Leo only became Pope because he was American, and that the Church chose him to deal with Trump. "If I wasn't in the White House, Leo wouldn't be in the Vatican."

Archbishop Coakley, president of the US Conference of Catholic Bishops, said he was "disheartened." On Monday morning, aboard the papal plane bound for Algeria, the Pope responded: he said he has no fear of the Trump administration and will keep speaking out against war. About Truth Social, he noted with a touch of irony that the platform's very name was ironic enough. "Say no more."

But Sunday night wasn't over yet. Shortly after attacking the Pope, Trump posted an AI-generated image showing himself in a white robe and red sash, laying his hand on a sick man in a hospital bed. Around him, soldiers, a nurse, eagles, and military jets.

The backlash came from all sides — including allies. Riley Gaines, a conservative activist and administration voice, asked: "Why? Seriously, I cannot understand why he'd post this." Former congresswoman Marjorie Taylor Greene, once one of Trump's staunchest allies, went further: "It's more than blasphemy. It's an Antichrist spirit."

By Monday morning, the image had been deleted. Trump said he thought it showed him as a doctor, not Jesus. "Only the fake news could come up with that one," he said.

It's not the first time. In May 2025, after Pope Francis died, Trump posted an image of himself dressed as Pope. This pattern matters because it reveals how much political isolation the war is creating — when figures like Greene and Gaines publicly criticize the president, something has shifted in American political dynamics.

What to do with this information.

Scenario one: the ceasefire is extended and talks continue. This is the most optimistic outcome. According to CNN, US officials are already discussing the possibility of a second meeting before April 22 and weighing whether to extend the deadline. If dialogue continues, energy prices may have peaked. For investors, it's time to reassess defensive energy positions. For consumers, prices stop climbing — but they don't come back down.

Scenario two: the ceasefire expires without renewal, but without immediate attacks. The blockade continues, oil stays between a hundred and a hundred and twenty dollars. The crisis becomes the new normal. Scarce fertilizers hit harvests in the Northern Hemisphere. This is a protection scenario: energy, agricultural commodities, gold. For wage earners, it's a squeeze — prices rising with no end date.

Scenario three: military escalation. The Wall Street Journal reported that Trump is considering limited strikes on Iran. If that happens, Iran has promised to fully shut down both the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb. The Dallas Fed estimates that a full closure of Hormuz for one quarter would cut global growth by nearly three percentage points. Analysts project oil at a hundred and seventy to two hundred dollars a barrel.

Keep your eye on April 22. That's when the ceasefire expires. If you invest, maintain liquidity. If you buy foreign currency, know that the dollar has strengthened since the war began. If you work in trade or agriculture, watch shipping costs. And if none of that seems to apply to you, know that the price of bread, gas, and groceries at your local store is tied to what's happening in the Strait of Hormuz.

Nobody knows what comes after April 22. But now you know what's at stake.